Availability is not on-hand stock
Real availability is on hand, minus committed, minus allocated, plus inbound within the promise window, across every location.
Improvements to picking and replenishment help. They cannot repair a commitment that was wrong when it was given.
A customer asks whether you have forty units. The sales desk checks a number, says yes, and the order is accepted. The warehouse discovers on Thursday that eighteen were committed to another order on Tuesday. Everyone behaved correctly; the number was wrong before anybody looked at it.
This paper argues that overselling is an architectural problem at the point of promise rather than an execution problem downstream, and examines the compounding cost that most distributors have never quantified.
If you read nothing else, read these. The analysis that follows sets out the evidence for each.
Real availability is on hand, minus committed, minus allocated, plus inbound within the promise window, across every location.
Expedited freight, partial shipment administration, a credit note, a customer call, and goodwill nobody prices.
Better picking and faster replenishment help, and they operate after the commitment has been made.
Short shipments, substitutions, expedites and credits. The number is usually higher than expected and it moves fast once addressed.
On hand is the easy part and the part most systems show. Real availability is on hand, minus committed, minus allocated, plus inbound within the promise window, across every location including stock in transit.
A distributor quoting from on-hand alone will oversell whenever demand concentrates — which is to say, on exactly the lines that matter most.
The architectural requirement is that quoting reads live availability rather than a periodic copy. One inventory pool shared by every channel, rather than separate copies synchronised overnight, which diverge by definition between syncs.
A single overselling incident is not one cost. It is the expedited freight to cover the shortfall, the partial shipment and its administration, the credit note, the customer call, and the goodwill nobody puts a number on.
In thin-margin distribution one of these consumes the profit on several good orders, which makes it worth calculating your own figure before deciding this is a minor operational irritation.
The measure we recommend is the count of orders requiring an intervention after acceptance — a short shipment, a substitution, an expedite or a credit. Most distributors have never counted it. The number is usually higher than expected and it drops quickly once the promise is fixed.
Because it is where the promise is made. Improvements downstream help and they cannot repair a commitment that was wrong when it was given.
Connecting the sales desk to live availability and contract pricing changes the quality of every promise, and everything downstream inherits that improvement without further work.
It also changes the conversation with the customer. A substitution offered at the point of sale is a service; the same substitution discovered at the warehouse is a problem, and the difference is entirely one of timing.
Every paper in this series ends with a framework you can run internally. We would rather you used it and reached your own conclusion than took ours on trust.
Five steps, starting at the point of commitment.
Count post-acceptance interventions. It quantifies a problem everybody knows and nobody has sized.
One inventory pool across every channel rather than synchronised copies.
Available-to-promise including committed, allocated and inbound quantities.
Contract pricing and credit position applied at quote, not at despatch.
Substitution at the point of sale, where it reads as service rather than failure.
The same argument lands differently across an executive team. These are the three versions worth separating.
Microsoft's own documentation for the product behaviour described above. We would rather you verified the basis than accepted our summary of it.
On these references: each entry names a Microsoft Learn article or documentation area by title, because deep links change while titles are stable. Searching the title on learn.microsoft.com will reach the current version. Where we have cited a figure or a product behaviour, it is Microsoft's statement rather than ours; where we have given a number of our own it is labelled as such in the text.
Send us an anonymised order file and your pricing rules for one customer segment, and we will demonstrate quoting against live availability using your own product data.
Inventory accuracy is treated as a warehouse metric. It is a planning input, and the buffer carried to compensate for it is working capital.
Every distributor can rank customers by revenue and margin. Almost none can rank them by what it costs to serve them, which is the ranking commercial decisions should use.
Describe the situation in your own words.